A VARIABLE IN WEATHER FORECAST
Posted: November 27th, 2012, 10:09 amAccuracy in Weather forecast should be precise and happening one. Western nations are equipped with sophisticated equipments and accessories to forecast weather in more accurate manner. But most of the developed countries lack due non availability of sophisticated equipments.
But, as per the latest analysis, some more factors also affects India to forecast weather precisely. I reproduce the analysis carried out in The Economic Times on 20.11.12 by Jayshree Bhosale to understand the present scenario:
The problem of piracy in the Indian ocean is hampering the collection of accurate water surface temperatures by international weather forecasting agencies that indirectly affects India’s long- range forecasts, a top weather scientist has said. India depends upon global agencies for the prediction of El Nino and the Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD) phenomena, both of which went wrong this year.
The tropical western Indian Ocean is an important region because the western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate mode in the India ocean, is similar to the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific ocean. Changes in subsurface ocean conditions in the western Indian ocean are a key input for the prediction of IOD events and the monsoon system.
“In 2012, most weather forecast agencies across the world failed to predict the IOD correctly. In April, it was predicted to be negative, due to which a drought was predicted for India. The IOD was predicted to be negative based on sea surface temperatures. But we did not have data about subsurface ocean conditions due to the problem of pirates in this region,” said Japanese meteorologist Toshio Yamagata. He was speaking at a meeting organized by the Indian Meteorological Society, Pune. El Nino and negative IOD reduce Indian Monsoon rainfall. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said that if IOD had been predicted to be positive, it would have helped. “Rainfall in the later half of monsoon improved against our expectation as El Nino did not happen and IOD was positive. Both of this helped to improve monsoon rainfall to 92%, which was within our forecast range,” said DS Pai, director, long range forecast, IMD.
IMD predicted 99% rainfall in April but scaled it down to 96% in June as most of international agencies, including the Japanese agency, forecast the emergence of El Nino and negative IOD conditions.
Several international weather data collection projects are reeling under the impact of rampant piracy along the African Coast.
“Research vessels cannot go in the western Indian Ocean,” said M Ravichandran, head, modeling and observation group, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad.
The Indian Ocean panel designed the Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), which includes the Research Moored Buoy Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon analysis and prediction (RAMA) consisting of 46 sites. Data observed by IndOOS and other observing platforms in the Indian Ocean are used in climate forecasting models and contribute to increasing weather forecast accuracy for the entire Indian Ocean Region.“IndOOS has been successfully growing since the beginning of the Argo era and the first deployment of RAMA moorings in 2000. In recent years however, the implementation of IndOOS has been significantly impeded by piracy in the western Indian ocean,” Ravichandran said.
Piracy attacks in recent years have impacted research cruises in most of the tropical western Indian ocean, and this has resulted in a significant slowdown in the implementation of IndOOS.
“Out of 46 planned RAMA mooring locations, 13 are in the piracy exclusion zone and thus we are not able to implement,” he added.
V.SENTHILNATHAN
But, as per the latest analysis, some more factors also affects India to forecast weather precisely. I reproduce the analysis carried out in The Economic Times on 20.11.12 by Jayshree Bhosale to understand the present scenario:
The problem of piracy in the Indian ocean is hampering the collection of accurate water surface temperatures by international weather forecasting agencies that indirectly affects India’s long- range forecasts, a top weather scientist has said. India depends upon global agencies for the prediction of El Nino and the Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD) phenomena, both of which went wrong this year.
The tropical western Indian Ocean is an important region because the western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate mode in the India ocean, is similar to the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific ocean. Changes in subsurface ocean conditions in the western Indian ocean are a key input for the prediction of IOD events and the monsoon system.
“In 2012, most weather forecast agencies across the world failed to predict the IOD correctly. In April, it was predicted to be negative, due to which a drought was predicted for India. The IOD was predicted to be negative based on sea surface temperatures. But we did not have data about subsurface ocean conditions due to the problem of pirates in this region,” said Japanese meteorologist Toshio Yamagata. He was speaking at a meeting organized by the Indian Meteorological Society, Pune. El Nino and negative IOD reduce Indian Monsoon rainfall. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said that if IOD had been predicted to be positive, it would have helped. “Rainfall in the later half of monsoon improved against our expectation as El Nino did not happen and IOD was positive. Both of this helped to improve monsoon rainfall to 92%, which was within our forecast range,” said DS Pai, director, long range forecast, IMD.
IMD predicted 99% rainfall in April but scaled it down to 96% in June as most of international agencies, including the Japanese agency, forecast the emergence of El Nino and negative IOD conditions.
Several international weather data collection projects are reeling under the impact of rampant piracy along the African Coast.
“Research vessels cannot go in the western Indian Ocean,” said M Ravichandran, head, modeling and observation group, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad.
The Indian Ocean panel designed the Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), which includes the Research Moored Buoy Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon analysis and prediction (RAMA) consisting of 46 sites. Data observed by IndOOS and other observing platforms in the Indian Ocean are used in climate forecasting models and contribute to increasing weather forecast accuracy for the entire Indian Ocean Region.“IndOOS has been successfully growing since the beginning of the Argo era and the first deployment of RAMA moorings in 2000. In recent years however, the implementation of IndOOS has been significantly impeded by piracy in the western Indian ocean,” Ravichandran said.
Piracy attacks in recent years have impacted research cruises in most of the tropical western Indian ocean, and this has resulted in a significant slowdown in the implementation of IndOOS.
“Out of 46 planned RAMA mooring locations, 13 are in the piracy exclusion zone and thus we are not able to implement,” he added.
V.SENTHILNATHAN